DTN News - UKRAINE CRISIS: Europe Has Little Reason To Fear Russian Gas Cut-Off

Asia News Report: DTN News - UKRAINE CRISIS: Europe Has Little Reason To Fear Russian Gas Cut-Off

*Ukraine braces for new demonstrations as Russia threatens to stop gas supply

*Russia’s Gazprom warns Ukraine of New Gas War

Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by K. V. Seth from reliable sources DW
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - March 8, 2014: More than one third of Europe's gas needs are covered by Russian gas. The crisis in Ukraine has kindled fears that Russia could stop the flow.

The crisis in Ukraine is not only about politics, it's also about natural gas. Russia, a key gas producer, supplies Europe with about a third of the gas it needs - and Ukraine is an important transit state.

Almost 40 percent of the gas used in Germany comes from Russia. The Baltic States' dependency is even greater: Russia supplies them with almost 100 percent of the gas they need. Ukraine, too. The crisis in Ukraine, which also depends on Russian gas, has unleashed increasing concern about Europe's energy supplies. Moscow has been known to employ energy giant Gazprom to serve political ends.

Twice since 2006, Russia cut gas flows to Ukraine because of disagreements over transit conditions and prices. Russia also suspected Ukraine of siphoning gas from Russian pipelines passing through the country. Gazprom announced this week it would cancel a 30 percent discount on natural gas for Ukraine, and demanded the country settle its debts - a harsh blow for a country teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.

What if the dispute escalates and Moscow stops the flow of gas? Experts have said Western Europe would probably not be that badly affected.

"That wouldn't affect the EU very much," said Jonas Grätz of the Center for Security Studies (CSS) in Zurich, adding a cut would hit eastern nations like Hungary and Bulgaria more than states in Western Europe, where the gas reservoirs are still filled to about 60 percent - enough for up to four months.

"There's a glut on the international gas markets," said Claudia Kemfert, an energy expert with the Berlin-based German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). But Kemfert said in the long run, Europe is insufficiently prepared to purchase a third of the gas it needs elsewhere. "That is true in particular for countries in Southeast Europe that buy large amounts of gas in Russia."

Russia has many ways to transport natural gas -it could easily cut off Ukraine
If transit via Ukraine were blocked, Russian gas could instead flow through the Nord Stream Pipeline that takes natural gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. Then, there's the Yamal-Europe natural gas pipeline which runs across Belarus and Poland to Germany. 

Should Russia halt all shipments, tankers could bring liquid natural gas to Europe from the Middle East. But Germany, for one, doesn't have a terminal to unload such tankers. In case of a longer disruption, gas buyers could also turn to Algeria and Norway.

Russia's biggest customer

Both the EU Commission and the German government maintain that the Crimea crisis does not endanger gas supplies to the European Union. Germany Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel pointed out that Russia has always honored its contracts with Western Europe.

"There's no reason to be concerned at the moment," EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger said, adding that the gas reserves are actually higher than they were last year due to Europe's mild winter temperatures.

Russia is not likely to cut gas supplies to Europe. "Russia heavily depends on energy deliveries to Europe," Kemfert said. "Some 60 percent of Russia's state income is due to oil, gas and coal sales - and a large part of that goes to Europe."

Halting all gas exports to Europe would hurt Russia's economy

Grätz added that "a different approach was needed to be taken to Russia's dependence on the European market." One possibility, he said, would be the strict implementation of European market rules on all dealings with Gazprom. Russian President Vladimir Putin has often used the energy giant to serve his own geopolitical goals. If European countries cut imports of Russian energy, it would negatively impact Gazprom as 60 percent of its revenue comes from the European market.

"When Gazprom has problems then Putin will also have problems because he needs the company in order to achieve projects in Russia, such as Sochi, and the supply of gas to rural regions as well as using the company as a means to conduct foreign policy," Grätz said.

Pressure on Ukraine

Russia is currently the European Union's third largest trading partner. In 2012, Russia exported 215 billion euros ($300 billion) worth of goods to the EU and imported 123.4 billion euros from the 28-member bloc. Germany currently represents Russia's third largest trading partner, exporting mainly cars, machines and chemical products. Russia, however, is Germany's 11th most important trade partner, just behind Poland.

The situation in Ukraine, however, is very different, and the EU is concerned about the country's energy supply. After meeting this week with EU energy ministers, Oettinger said the bloc was considering helping Kyiv pay its energy bill. It is also considering sending gas to Ukraine in pipelines that run through Slovakia.

Related Images on Ukraine Crisis;

*Link for This article compiled by K. V. Seth from reliable sources DW
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DTN News - RUSSIA NEWS: Putin Assassination Plot News Greeted With Skepticism In Russia

Asia News Report: DTN News - RUSSIA NEWS: Putin Assassination Plot News Greeted With Skepticism In Russia
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources The Star
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - February 28, 2012: Security forces have foiled a Chechen-linked plot to assassinate Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, state television said Monday in a report likely to boost support for the Russian leader in a presidential election less than a week away.

Other candidates questioned the timing of the report, which comes as Putin and his party face unprecedented protests following a scandal-marred parliamentary election. The Communist Party candidate called the report a “cheap trick.”

The report, which included televised confessions, said the suspects were arrested in Ukraine and linked to a Chechen rebel leader who has claimed responsibility for terror attacks in Russia.

Putin has portrayed himself as a strong protector of Russia's national interests and has counted the victory over Chechen separatist rebels as one of the key achievements of his 12-year rule. The report casting him as a terrorist target could draw public sympathy and help secure his victory by a wider margin.

Putin, who was Russia's president from 2000 to 2008 and has been prime minister since then, is running for a third, now six-year presidential term. He is expected to win easily against four Kremlin-approved challengers, but the wave of protests since December's parliamentary election has undermined his image as a strong, popular leader.

Channel One said the suspects, acting on instructions from Chechen warlord Doku Umarov, were preparing to kill Putin in Moscow immediately after Sunday's election. It said the suspects were arrested in Ukraine's Black Sea port city of Odesa after an accidental explosion Jan. 4 while they were trying to manufacture explosives at a rented apartment.

The Ukrainian Security Service said earlier this month it had detained a man sought by Russian authorities on charges of terrorism and two of his accomplices in Odesa on Feb. 4, but said nothing at the time about them being linked to an anti-Putin plot.

Its spokeswoman, Marina Ostapenko, said Monday the announcement in Moscow came only now because the Russian special service was conducting its own investigation. She confirmed the main suspect was involved in a plot to kill Putin, but didn't elaborate.

There was no immediate explanation for the different number of suspects cited by Russia and Ukraine.

Channel One said the source for its information was Russia's Federal Security Service, the main KGB successor agency dealing with domestic security. The agency refused to comment.

Umarov, whose whereabouts are unknown, has not responded to the allegations.

A Chechen rebel website, KavkazCenter, shrugged off the report about the assassination plot as “election propaganda nonsense.” The website noted that the explosion in Odesa was initially reported to have been caused by a gas leak and then that the men were preparing the explosives for a contract hit on a local businessman.

Three veteran party leaders on the presidential ballot differed on whether the report could be believed, but all said they suspected the news was intentionally delayed until shortly before the election to provide maximum benefit to Putin.

Sergei Mironov, leader of the socialist Just Russia party, said the assassination plot was plausible. The others disagreed.

Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist leader running second in the polls, called the report “a cheap trick that reeks,” the state RIA Novosti news agency quoted him as saying.

The nationalist party leader, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, said the assassination plot was invented by political spin doctors and designed to appeal to “poorly educated old ladies” and housewives, the news agency reported.

The majority of Russians get their news from state-controlled television, whose blanket coverage of Putin casts him as the defender of a stable and prosperous Russia.

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the statements linking the reported plot to the campaign were “blasphemous.”

Channel One said two of the alleged members of the group arrived in Ukraine from the United Arab Emirates via Turkey with instructions from Umarov, the top military leader for the Chechen rebels. One of them, a Chechen, was killed during the accidental explosion in Odesa and the other one, Kazakhstan citizen Ilya Pyanzin, was wounded in the blast and arrested.

Pyanzin led the investigators to their contact in Odesa, Adam Osmayev, a Chechen who previously had lived in London and had been sought by Russia since 2007, the report said. The TV station showed footage of Osmayev's arrest in Odesa with black-clad special troops bursting in and a half-naked, bloodied Osmayev on his knees, his head bowed down.

Speaking to Channel One from custody in Ukraine, Osmayev described the group's mission: “Our goal was to go to Moscow and try to kill Prime Minister Putin ... Our deadline was after the Russian presidential election.”

Both of Osmayev's hands were bandaged, and his face was covered in green dots from an antiseptic used to treat his cuts.

He said he wouldn't have become a suicide bomber, but the other Chechen who was killed in the accidental explosion might have agreed. Osmayev added they considered using powerful military mines that would have made a suicide mission unnecessary.

Umarov, the Chechen rebel leader, has claimed responsibility for a number of attacks against Russia, including a January 2011 suicide bombing at Moscow's Domodedovo airport that killed 37 people and injured more than 180. He also had warned that many more such attacks would follow if Russia did not allow the Caucasus to become an independent Islamic state governed by Sharia law.

Umarov also claimed responsibility for the double-suicide bombing of Moscow's subway in March 2010 that killed 40 people.

He is seen more as an ideological than a military figure, as many militant cells operate autonomously and shun centralized command.

In response to Russia's opposition protests, Umarov issued a statement this month ordering his men to avoid hitting civilian targets, saying that civilians should be spared because they have risen up against Putin.

Channel One said Osmayev had led the investigators to a cache of explosives near a Moscow avenue that Putin uses to travel between his office and a suburban residence. A Russian security officer told the television station that the suspects also had videos of Putin's convoy taken from different angles to prepare for the attack.

Pyanzin, who also confessed on film, was shown saying the group were to sabotage economic facilities and then try to kill Putin.

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